‘Homes washed away, streets decimated’ in largest storm operation in 10 years says SES
LEIGH SALES: How does the scale of the storm compare to what you’ve seen in the past?
STEPHEN PEARCE: We were only talking about that just recently. I haven’t seen a storm of this magnitude in my time here at the SES and, indeed, this would be the largest storm operation in the last 10 years …. we’ve never seen these cyclonic winds last for 24 hours straight. That’s what’s caused the majority of the damage. (NSW SES Deputy Commissioner) http://www.abc.net.au/7.30/content/2015/s4221029.htm
1. There are expectations that the frequency and severity of extreme weather events will increase under climate change http://www.ipcc-wg2.gov/SREX/
2. This will increasingly push decision-makers in government and business into the arena of – we haven’t experienced something like this before …
3. The purpose of using scenarios as a planning tool is NOT to predict the future, but rather to:
(a) Push outwards or extend the boundaries of our thinking about what is possible (enlarge our possibility space) http://www.tyndall.ac.uk/sites/default/files/wp3.pdf
(b) Be willing to consider the adequacy of our current mental model of reality http://my.mli.org.il/mli_pdf/kenes2010/wack1.pdf
(c) Be prepared to think rigorously about the implications of this new possibility space, particularly in relation to how we might cope with large, unexpected events which potentially overwhelm our current response capability http://thoughtcorner.com/vision/external/metodo/Strategy%20under%20%20uncertanity2.pdf
4. “Our current system (for homeland security) does not provide the necessary framework to manage the challenges posed by 21st century catastrophic threats” (The Federal Response to Hurricane Katrina – Lessons Learned. The White House, 23 February 2006, p52) https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-00338386/document If this was true for the US, it may also be true for us here in Australia.